The Big Picture: Global Economic Signals

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

GOLD prices remain consolidated from last week due to easing US-China trade tensions, with demand dimming as the MACD shows indecision in the market. The RSI indicates slight bearish momentum, but without a clear breakout, we maintain a bullish overall outlook.

In recent developments, China exempted some U.S. imports from tariffs, but dismissed Trump's claims of ongoing negotiations, suggesting China wants the U.S. to initiate trade talks, contrary to the U.S. approach of exerting pressure.

SILVER

SILVER prices have started to lower after GOLD finds weakness. The MACD is seeing increased growth for the bearish momentum, and the RSI is also finding consistent selling momentum without showing any significant move to call out an oversold level. However, until we see a clear break of structure at 32.5177, we remain bullish.

DXY

The Dollar index is being squeezed on the EMA200 and relevant support structure. The markets may indicate increased bullish momentum for others, but we will remain conservative and not call into any sort of directional bias. For the meantime, we do see prices still respecting bearish structure and maintaining overall bearish momentum. The MACD is consolidated, and the RSI, too, is failing to call for any significant developments.

Some interesting news on the USD may shift overall market sentiment, as this will reflect how the tariffs affected the economy of the U.S. since their execution. We will have JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, Advance GDP q/q, Employment Cost Index q/q, and Core PCE Price Index q/q on Wednesday. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be reported. Finally, Earnings, NFP, and the Unemployment Rate will be posted on Friday.

While this months news report will not fully identify how the FED will react, it will set the tone for the following months on what to look for.

GBPUSD

The Pound is currently maintaining prices at a similar level. We will not call a shift or whatsoever until we see a clear break in either direction. Until now, we see prices respecting overall bullish structure, thus maintaining a bullish bias.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is also maintaining prices at a specific level, failing to call a shift to any direction. This may come as analysts continue to wait-and-see how the tensions between the U.S.-China relationship will develop. Other than this factor, analysts shift their attention to the upcoming CPI q/q on Wednesday and elections on Friday.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi will have some interesting developments this week as we see markets finding easing tensions. This may determine the growth of the Kiwi if China benefits from this move by the U.S. However, it is seen in the chart that it is maintaining a consolidation just above the EMA200, finding increased chances for a bullish continuation as price fails to shift overall market direction. We remain looking for bullish opportunities until we see a specific development with price.

Something to take note of is the China Manufacturing PMI data to be released this Wednesday. This will affect the Kiwi depending on how their economy grew, and how analysts will interpret this move.

EURUSD

The Euro is currently consolidated within the consolidation zone. We can see the MACD and the RSI currently show consolidated momentum. We expect further buying as prices fail to show a relative break to sell more. The EMA200 is supporting prices. However, we will not be overly optimistic for a bullish direction, as prices may be waiting for an opportunity to sell it at a premium. Thus, we remain conservative until a clearer break or movement is seen.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently bullish, recently breaking above the structure at 141.442, which has become a support level. The RSI suggests strong bullish momentum, though the MACD indicates low volume for this trend.

Expect limited growth ahead of upcoming rate data from Japan on Thursday, where rates are likely to remain steady amid tariff uncertainties. Additionally, Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. continue, with top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa visiting Washington this week for further talks.

USDCHF

The Franc maintains the bullish shift but has been steady since the break. There is increased bullish strength coming in from the MACD, as it shows strong bullish volume despite prices maintaining the high. The RSI is also steady and consolidated. We wait for more developments before we call a specific bias for this market.

USDCAD

The CAD is currently seeing consolidation, with the EMA200 squeezing prices lower. We expect an explosion soon, but the trade direction that we will see is still uncertain. There will be some Canadian data on GDP m/m coming this Wednesday, which may give some indication of Canadas health. Until we see a clear break, we steer clear of this market.

COT Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (5/5)

CAD - STRONG (1/5)

EUR - WEAK (1/5)

JPY - STRONG (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (2/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - STRONG (1/5)

GOLD - STRONG (2/5)

SILVER - STRONG (3/5)